The Vulture Squawks

Its nearly fantasy football draft time (In fact in one league we started a slow draft on July 22nd) which means its time for the Vulture to tell all the BestBallers out there who to draft, who to avoid and who's going to win the Superbowl. This year I am going to concentrate more than ever on the fantasy aspect of players and my first 4 articles (1 a week) will each review 2 divisions before the final week when I upset everyone with my real football predictions. For each team I will try and give you a general overview followed by my thoughts on key players and any other key salient points.

For my final preview article I'll cover two contrasting divisions the NFC South which (if the AFC North is the Defensive division the NFC S) must be the defenseless division (Saints 16th Falcons 30th, Panthers 31st) and the premier division the cream of fantasy divisions the NFC West which contains 5 of the top 8 draft picks and at the end of the season will have the best 4th place team.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

General - They may have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, but when all your opponents have penciled in a W for games against you it doesn't really mater. A new owner a new D coach (who's changing the team to a 3-4 system), a new starter at QB, two new starters at RB and a new No1 WR indicates a team in change. Last years 7-9 was a miracle this year I have them penciled in for 3-13 and I understand why they have reduced season ticket prices 'cos the fans don't even get to see the Rams & 49ers this year.
Changes - Additions -  Warrick Dunn (RB),  Jeff Graham(WR), WIllie Jackson(WR), Travis McGriff(WR), Alvis Whitted(WR) / Losses - Chris Chandler(QB), Tony Martin(WR), Terance Mathis(WR).
QB's - They say Mick Vick has the combination of speed and arm strength that could revolutionize the QB position. I say he's had 2 NFL starts and went 1TD - 6 Ints with 44% completion, that he is inexperienced and maybe, just maybe, if he was passing to a wide out tandem of Moss & Owens he may be able to produce the goods this year. Instead he has poor wideouts and he's standing behind an O line that allowed 66 sacks last year. Grab him in a keeper league but otherwise he's a weak back-up worth starting only against the Panthers and if you really want to risk it for your fantasy championship game he's up against the Lions in week 16.
RB's - After trading for a good starting RB in Warrick Dunn, the falcons took RB T.J.Duckett in the first round of the draft? I'd guess that it will be split carry time 65%-35% making the only part of the Falcons game that is a fantasy option a non-event. Both could be good No3 RB's in any fantasy team but don't fall for the Duckett hype they are not paying Warrick Dunn $28.5 million dollars over 6 years to sit on the bench.
WR's - Getting a No2 WR from another team in mid July and installing him as your No1 Wideout isn't going to help anyone, least of all Messers Vick and Willie Jackson himself. Jackson makes a passable no3 Fantasy wideout but Vicks other targets are 3 new Falcons, Jeff Graham, Travis McGriff and Alvis Whitted (I said who as well for the last 2) , 6th and 7th round draft picks Kahilil Hill & Michael Coleman plus last years crop of 3rd raters lead by Shawn Jefferson & Brian Finneran - now their are 7 wideouts even Steve Young would have had trouble hitting.
Others - TE Algae Crumpler could be the Falcons best receiver but even then he only makes a fantasy teams bye-week list. Kicker Jay Feely was 5th in the league last year with 115 points and he is a great kicker, however playing for the Falcons makes him a very weak fantasy starter. The Defense were bad last year and changing to a 3-4 will make them worse this year, avoid at all costs and individually only LB Keith Brooking should be someone's starter in a individual D League.
Comments - Despite the presence of Mick Vick this team will be a running team under boring Dan Reeves.

Carolina Panthers

General - In the last article I said Detroit were the worst team in the NFL, Carolina may be their main challenge for the title. New Head Coach John Fox will be lucky to guide this team to 2-14 and that's splitting the series with Atlanta and beating the Lions.
Changes - Additions - Rodney Peete(QB), Lamar Smith(RB)  / Losses - Tim Biakabutuka(RB), Donald Hayes(WR), Richard Huntley(RB).
QB's - Chris Weinke lead the NFL in QB rushing TD's, that was probably because his RB's had missed the hand-off and his WR's were never free. The situation hasn't improved this year and you will have to be really desperate to make him even a back-up in deep leagues.
RB's - To save me writing read the RB section for the Falcons and then swap Lamar Smith for Warrick Dunn & DeShaun Foster for T.J.Duckett, Oh yes Foster fumbles.
WR's - Muhsin Muhammad is a passable wideout worth a No3 fantasy job, behind him the Panthers make no roster moves and kept Isaac Byrd and Steve Smith neither of which are worth a fantasy spot
Others - TE Wesley Walls is back from ACL surgery and is up there with the greatest TE's of all time. Unfortunately the team he plays for limits his fantasy value and he is a borderline starter. Kicker John Kasay is a good kicker on a poor team and only worth spot duties.  The Defense are not very good but because they are on the field a lot they may be worth bye-week duty, individually look elsewhere.
Comments - This team will only be competitive against the Falcons and Lions and are only worth looking at to see who's value is up because they play the Panthers.

New Orleans Saints

General - A brilliant re-alignment - dump the Rams/49ers yet keep the Falcons/Panthers - and an easy schedule sounds promising for the Saints but this team has made as many off-season moves with its starters as any in the NFL (which was perhaps needed after losing its last 4 games last year) and the question is will it all gel together
Changes - Additions - Terry Allen(RB), Dale Carter(DB), Bryan Cox(LB), Jerome Pathon(WR), Jake Reed(WR), David Sloan(TE). / Losses - Jeff Blake(QB), Cam Cleeland(TE), Albert Connell(WR), La'Roi Glover(DL), Kevin Mathis(DB), Keith Mitchell(LB), Fred Weary(DB), Ricky Williams(RB).
QB's - Last year was Aaron Brooks' first as a starter and he made mistakes. Another year more experienced and a better catching RB means Brooks will probably go in the 2nd round of the draft, will be the 6th or 7th QB taken and in a dynasty league has a super long term future.
RB's - Ricky Williams was a top 6 RB coming into last years draft so with him gone how do we rank sophomore Duce McAllister? He is a different back to WIlliams more finesse and speed than power grind and he is definitely the superior catching back and most importantly he fits the Saints West Coast O better. There are questions on his durability and his back-up is Terry Allen who seems to find this type of job and take over each year, however McAllister will be a top 12 RB and a starter on someone's team.
WR's - Only No1 WR Joe Horn is left from last years starters and he is a mid level No1 fantasy receiver well worth the tag. Fighting for the No2 spot are free agents Jerome Pathon (injury risk) and Jake Reed (Old age risk) plus rookie Donte' Stallworth(rookie risk). An interesting camp battle and the winner will make a reasonable No3 fantasy receiver.
Others - The swap for David Sloan at TE is an upgrade and he could be a good red zone threat. Kicker John Carney is worth a start because the Saints offensive will have to be a high scoring one as the changes on defense are definitely for the worse.  The D lost several pro-bowlers and fantasy starters in the off season and despite some nice replacements the D is now just a middling back-up unit worth plugging in against weak opposition. Individually LB Charlie Clemens and at a squeak DB Sammy Knight are worth starting jobs, a long way from the 5 last year.
Comments - Look at the Saints schedule closely, they start off tough and then from week 8 have a very nice time of it. If your players don't perform early don't give up on them and watch out for the owners who chuck them onto the waiver wire for the bye week 9 a very nice time to acquire them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

General - Last year I thought Tampa could go all the way, but when your elite No1 WR gets 1TD all year and your RB duo only just break the 1000yd mark you know there is a problem. The management decided it was the coach and paid a fortune to grad Gruden from the Raiders. This combined with the realignment removal of the brrrrr factor plus an easy schedule means this team really could do it this year and in fantasy terms the change from Defense Dungy to GoGo Gruden is the biggest team turn around in all the NFL.
Changes - Additions - Terrell Buckley(DB), Ken Dilger(TE), Rob Johnson(QB), Joe Jurevicius(WR), Keenan McCardell(WR), Michael Pittman(RB). / Losses - Donnie Abraham(DB), Reidel Anthony(WR), Warrick Dunn(RB),Jacquez Green(WR), Dave Moore(TE).
QB's - I'll bet a Johnson starts and at the moment its 75% Brad   - 25% Rob. Which ever gets the job is a decent back-up but don't pull the trigger to early as the starter isn't finalised and if one struggles they could get pulled very quickly.
RB's - The good news is that the age long committee of Dunn/Allsott is gone and Michael Pittman has been brought in to start. However Gruden has always run committee backfields and I think we are just swapping the names Pittman and Dunn. In fantasy terms Pittman is a weak No2 RB and Allsott a weak No3 man.
WR's - I still can not explain how an elite Wideout like Keyshawn Johnson can post a franchise record number of catches yet only get 1 TD. He is currently a weak starter on most fantasy teams but if you are drafting in September and he has established his rapport with the "starting' QB I'd be prepared to making him the No6 Wideout to be taken. I said last year that Tampa's cast of characters for No2 WR was uninspiring and this year they have brought in Keenan McCardell opposite Key. Kee will make a great No3 WR on any fantasy team. The No3 spot is between Joe Jurevicus and rookie Marquis Walker both are worth keeping an eye on in really deep drafts.
Others - TE Ken Dilger didn't score many in Indi and I don't see it changing much here. Kicker Martin Grammatica is a top 10 booter and well worth a start. The Defense isn't as solid as last year and a couple of injuries could devastate it but with the Bucs schedule it's still a top 5 unit. Individually Simeon Rice, Warren Sapp and Ronde Barber are all worth solo starts.
Comments - A new Offensive system to learn is never easy but if the Tampa O can get into sync quickly Grudens genius could provide a lot of fantasy jewels. Jewels who play Atlanta and Detroit in weeks 14 & 15. The only major problem with Tampa is 3 Johnsons, a Key, a Kee, and a Ken.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

General - In football terms someone must hate the Cards, moving them into this division means more long years without a playoff spot. From a fantasy perspective though its great news, Garcia & Warner get more target practice against a dreadful defense and the potentially high scoring Cards O lose all those nasty defensively minded division rivals and get to play in a bunch of high scoring games.
Changes - Additions - Freddie Jones(TE), Duane Starks(DB) / Losses - Rob Moore(WR), Michael Pittman(RB).
QB's - Every year I say this is the year Jake Plummer will live up to his billing and potential and it never quite happens. As usual I'll tell you don't believe the hype yet the first QB I drafted anywhere this year was.... Jake Plummer (I had the 14th out of 14 slot in a no minus points for ints and took him with the last pick in the 5th round). He makes a great back-up QB with some cherry picking starts and in a big league will operate nicely in tandem with some of the other middle round QB.
RB's - Thomas Jones finally gets the chance to start full time, I don't know if he can handle the job but only time will tell. Even with the shortage of good starting RB's you should leave him on the shelf until most of the other starters are gone. Backing him up are Marcell Shipp and Josh Scobey neither of whom have a single professional rushing carry - only in the deepest of league will these guys be last round gambles.
WR's - David Boston emerged last year as an top 5 fantasy receiver. An off season drugs bust (with possible NFL suspension) blackened his image but he is still a fantasy starter. Look at the additions list above. Where oh where is a free agent No2 receiver, incumbent Frank Sanders is aging and has declined in production for the last 4 years and No3 MarTay Jenkins just won't step up. Would it have bust the bank to have acquired, McCardell or Glenn or Graham or an Ismail oh well perhaps Antonio Freeman has somewhere to go to.
Others - They may not have picked up a No2 wideout but they did get an elite TE Freddie Jones for Plummer to throw to. Jones is a top 5 TE on most draft boards. The kicker is the No2 Grammatica (Bill - yep the celebrations hurt me one) and his job isn't certain. The denseness could be the worst in the NFC don't take it unless all other 31 have gone and you need that back-up. Individually LB Ronald McKinnon and DB Kwamie Lassiter are both worth starting slots.
Comments - If Thomas Jones is a bust and Boston gets suspended this could be a fantasy disaster area however nearly all the teams players will go late in the draft and could be this years fantasy fantasies.

Saint Louis Rams

General - When possible the best offense the game has ever seen gets beaten by the not so worthy Patriots it has to hurt and I'll bet Mike Martz has spent the off season figuring out if he can get Faulke to break the combined single season record AND get Warner to break Marino's single season passing records. Either way this offense is a fantasy managers wet dream and will go for it from the first whistle. On the other side of the ball in 2000 the Rams D ranked a lowly 21st Lovie Smith worked wonders last year and they sit 5th or 6th on most draft boards this year.
Changes - Additions - Jamie Duncan(LB), Terrence Wilkins(WR) / Losses - Mark Fields(LB), London Fletcher(LB), Az-Zahir Hakim(WR).
QB's - Kurt Warner is the No1 Fantasy QB in the NFL and will probably be taken between 2nd and 5th in most leagues. His only question mark is that darned thumb but all reports are that its better this year. For anyone interested in a handcuff his back-up looks like being Jamie Martin again this year.
RB's - The first pick in every serious league is Marshall Faulk, why? 4 straight 2000 yard combined seasons, 20+ TD each of last 2 years(both in only 14 games) - no one comes near that production and with a fantasy shortage of RB's he is No1. His handcuff is going to be either Trung Candidate or rookie Lamar Gordon and if you were lucky enough to get the first pick make sure you get the insurance.
WR's - As if the top RB and top QB weren't enough the Rams also get TWO top 10 WR's. the only problem with Holt and Bruce is the other gets too many passes thrown their way, but with Warner on the trigger it really isn't a issue. Az Hakim has gone and the No3 job will be between new boy in town Terrance Wilkins and old guy in town Ricky Proehl. Interesting future wideout here is Dane Looker who led the NFL Europe this year in catches and yards (668 in 10 games) and was the word bowl MVP just the type of guy Mike Martz likes.
Others - Weakest fantasy position on the team is TE where Ernie Cornwell just doesn't get enough balls to be a stud and is a borderline starter. Kicker Jeff Wilkins is the top kicker because he doesn't miss, he plays in-doors and gets lots of opportunities to kick. As mentioned above the D is a good starter unit and individually you can start DL Leonard Little and DB Aeneas WIlliams with confidence.
Comments - The only major problems the Rams have are that the 2nd best team in the NFL are in their division and the schedule this year is a tough one with 4 potential bad weather outdoor games in the last 6 weeks.

San Francisco 49ers

General - Last year they had an easy schedule and surprised a lot of people going 12-4. This year the schedule is very tough and they will have to play even better than last year to achieve the same result. The good news is that the team is basically unchanged from last year and the young Defense is a year and a play-off run wiser.
Changes - Additions - Tony Parrish(DB) / Losses - Lance Schulters(DB).
QB's - Jeff Garcia is the 2nd best fantasy QB in the NFL and some would argue that his rushing ability makes him better than Warner. He had the most TD of any player last season and will probably go in the first 5 picks of most drafts. Unfortunately for the 49er (despite what Dennis says) back-up Tim Rattay isn't in the same league but surprisingly the 49ers are basically a rush 1st team so they could cope if Garcia went out short term.
RB's - Whilst it may be a magnificent and achievable goal to get 2 RB's over the 1,000 yard mark in the same season, its a fantasy nightmare. The number 2 rushing offense in the NFL last year and their No1 RB is a 4th/5th round draft pick, the problem is that the No 2 RB is also a 4th/5th round pick. If I was given the option of either I would probably take Barlow he's younger and despite last season magical return Hearst is 31 and more injury prone.
WR's - The No 1 wideout in 2002 may be Randy Moss if he gets Mike Tice's 40% but going into the draft Terrell Owens is the No1 and is the only wide out I'll guarantee goes in the first round in all drafts. The problem for fantasy fans is that for 7 years we have been waiting for JJ Stokes to become an elite No2 and he never does (OK he had 7TD's last year but that's not elite). No.3 wideout Tai Streets still hasn't stepped up and challenged him.
Others - I think TE Kevin Johnson could match the elite TE's this year and is a starter in any TE league. Last year going into the pre-season it was Jose Cortes v Jamie Rheem for kicking duties. Cortes won but didn't perform well enough and he's battling 4th round rookie Jeff Chandler for the job. I think Chandler will get it and as soon as its clear because of the offense they are on grab them as they will be a top 10 kicker. Last year the D was very young and unproven but 3 shut-outs in the last 6 games proved they have gelled and are now a starting unit in most leagues. Individually I don't have any ranked in the top 16 for their position but any of DL Andre Carter, LB's Julian Peterson & Grant Winborn or DB's Zack Bronson, Ahmed Plummer & Tony Parrish could end the season in the top 10
Comments - The best two team in the NFL won't meet in the superbowl nor in a conference championship but they will meet for the last game of the season on the Monday night when the Rams host the 49ers probably with the division and homefield advantage on the line. That game may start 3am my time but I'll be on-line listening to every second.

Seattle Seahawks

General - A move into the toughest division, a tough schedule, their starting QB out pre-season for 4-8 weeks and a poor defense means that Mike Holmgrens Seahawks won't christen their new stadium with a play-off run.
Changes - Additions - Doug Evans(DB), Shayne Graham(K)./ Losses - Christian Fauria(TE), Levon Kirkland(LB), Michael Sinclair(DL), Ricky Watters(RB).
QB's - Mr. Trent "Safe" Dilfer gets awarded the starters spot before the season opens and then goes and gets injured in a pre-season game. He should be back before the bye weeks so he still makes a viable fantasy back-up to your stud QB. Back in charge for now is Matt Hasselbank but he proved last year that he doesn't have what it takes to start in the NFL.
RB's - Shaun Alexander is the most over-rated RB out there, with some boards slating him as No2 RB and no3 pick over all including TSN. The reason behind this is when he got the start last year his 12 game total was 1,318yds running + 343yds receiving and 16TD's, extrapolate them up and you do get the No2 back with an average 138yds per game. However look closely at those figures when the Seahawks were making their play-off run at the end of the season in 6 of his last 7 games he went for 43, 87, 28, 27, 96, 59 yards and 3 total touchdowns. With receptions included that's 474 yards in 6 games or 79yards and 0.5 TD's per game.  Yes he is a starting fantasy RB he may even be a late 1st round pick but either defenses worked him out or he tired, either way that's not the player I want to spend my No3 pick on. His back-up will probably be rookie Maurice Morris (what sort of parent gives a son the same forename as their surname and don't give me any of that French pronunciation rubbish).
WR's - Darrel Jackson is probably the most overlooked fantasy starting WR out there. If Dilfer was at the helm I'd make him No10 WR, keep an eye out because if he's still there in the 4th round snatch him. The No2 at Seattle is Koren Robinson who had an injury filled rookie season but showed enough flashes to make a risky pick and possible No3 fantasy reviver.
Others - Seattle's headline making first round pick of Jerramy Stevens caught most pundits of guard and whilst rookie TE's don't normally come good he may be worth a risky starting spot in a TE league if elsewhere is solid. The kicking battle now appears to be between incumbent kicker Rian Lindell, ex-Bill Shane Graham and Aaron Elling. I think Lindell will stay but don't bother drafting him. The Seattle D used to be one of the best but last year finished in the bottom half in most categories. They may make a weak back-up squad and only LB Chad Brown is worth a solo start.
Comments - The good fantasy news here is that having a weak D in this Division means that the 49ers, Rams & Cards high powered O's can run up lots of points against the Seahawks. A new Conference, a new division, a new stadium, a new uniform and a new logo won't help, it will be the same old Seahawks missing out on the play-offs once again.

The Voorschoten Vulture

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